IFOK-study: climate change adaptation-governments are underestimating the challange
07-12-2009 Climate change is no longer a problem of the future; it is already happening here and now. Yet governments worldwide are vastly unprepared for the immense changes global warming will bring about. Even if countries can agree on concrete targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions when they meet later this month at the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, many countries will still face increased flooding, famine and disease due to rising temperatures. We must act quickly: a study by the consulting firm IFOK shows how climate adaptation can work.
Climate change adaptation remains to this day a blind spot in the public debate. For years the subject was considered politically incorrect – a sign of resignation and defeat, and of an unwillingness to take the steps necessary to prevent climate change: Climate protection and climate adaptation seemed to be diametrically opposed to each other. Yet it has been clear for some time that climate change will occur – and will bring significant changes with it – regardless of how much we can reduce emissions. Yet governments across the world have done little to prepare themselves for these changes. Most countries are currently at the initial stages of various non-binding and/or pilot projects; hardly any have begun to implement binding adaptation strategies. The study “Floating Houses and Mosquito Nets: Global Climate Change Adaptation Strategies” from the consulting firm IFOK looks for the first time at how 16 countries across the globe – including developing and emerging countries such as Bangladesh, India and Brazil, as well as industrialized countries such as Germany, Australia, Great Britain and Finland – are tackling the effects of climate change.
“It is clear that something must be done,” says the study’s lead author, Dr. Hans-Peter Meister. “Protective schemes need to be binding, pilot projects need to be systematically evaluated and successful efforts communicated internationally. Above all, political and industry leaders must give this neglected subject their full attention. In the future, climate protection and climate adaptation must be thought of as one effort. A new political paradigm is needed: We must avoid that which cannot be overcome and overcome that which cannot be avoided.”
The IFOK study has identified those factors that are the hallmarks of a successful adaptation strategy. These success factors offer political decision makers a starting point and orientation, from which they can develop adaptation policies. A part of this is so called mainstreaming: possible adaptation measures are brought into all relevant planning processes from the beginning. In the political and administrative spheres, this requires cooperation and collaboration across departments. The British government, for example, includes numerous ministries and institutions in coordinating adaptation efforts. But political actors alone are not enough: other groups such as the science community and those directly affected by the effects of climate change must also be involved. Particularly in developing countries, for example, there is much to be gained from talking to farmers and fishermen, who may be able to provide crucial information where official data is lacking.
In order to avoid parallel or redundant structures, climate adaptation can be incorporated into – and strengthen – already existing strategies in areas such as sustainability or poverty-reduction. Also, because the exact nature of the effects of climate change are difficult to predict, adaptation measures should be fundamentally sensible – that is, they should provide a benefit within a range of expected climate variations. One such measure could be the building of a flood levee which could be quickly and inexpensively expanded from an initial minimal height to meet rising sea-levels as needed. Also important is support at the local level, as it is there that many measures will need to be implemented. Keeping in mind the longevity of the problem, continuity in the planning and implementation of adaptation strategies is as essential to success as regular target reviews. A further success factor for adaptation policy is its grounding in sound information about the concrete effects of climate change. Close cooperation between the science community and those responsible for implementation is thus imperative.
With this application-oriented study, which includes an attachment containing numerous practical examples, IFOK hopes to increase awareness among decision makers for climate adaptation, and ensure that it is handled with higher priority in the future. The study provides decision makers in the political, business and administrative spheres an orientation and a starting point from which to face this central issue.
The study can be seen at the following address: http://files.ifok.de/all/klima/
